Seasonal Rookie Rankings
May 2, 2008 at 12:24 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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The fantasy value of NFL rookies seems to be misunderstood. In seasonal drafts, owners that can separate the young studs from the duds, are much more likely to bring home their fantasy title. Don’t be confused though, the difference between evaluating the fantasy value of NFL rookies in dynasty leagues and seasonal leagues is vast. Dynasty league owners must look years into the future, and prognosticate the value of certain running backs and WRs, who may enter 2008 as low as second or third on the depth chart at their position.There are also rookies that fill a need immediately for their teams, but may not have as much longevity. Deciphering who to select is a lot easier for seasonal owners than it is for dynasty owners, in that rookies are typically low-risk sleeper options in redraft leagues, as opposed to the next face of the franchise in long-term formats.
Let’s take a look at our top seasonal rookie prospects. In other words, these are the guys that are most likely to step in and contribute from a fantasy perspective in 2008.
1. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders RB - Whether or not you believe he’s this year’s Adrian Peterson, he will get the bulk of the rushing load for the Oakland Raiders, and he will be a threat to score every single time he touches the rock. His critics need to get over the fact that he plays for the Raiders, and realize that there are very few NFL players who possess his skill set. McFadden is not only the top seasonal rookie, but he’s also by far the top dynasty rookie. Owners in deep seasonal leagues shouldn’t be afraid to snag McFadden in the early third round if he’s still there.
2. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears RB - The Bears have already come out and said that the big back from Tulane will enter training camp as their leading candidate for the starting RB gig. There is zero confidence in Cedric Benson in the Bears organization right now, and the largest role Adrian Peterson will play will be during the two-minute drill. Like McFadden, Forte is also a great dynasty prospect. Forte is a solid late round sleeper that will provide third or fourth round value when it’s all said and done.
3. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions RB - Trading up to draft Kevin Smith with the first pick in the third round of the 2008 NFL Draft is the smartest thing the Detroit Lions have done in a long time. Word out of Allen Park is that Smith will easily beat out Tatum Bell for the starting gig, and that new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto will use him up to 30 times a ball game, running behind new offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus. As bad as the Lions organization has been for the past 60 years, one position they’ve actually had success with is running back. Like Forte, Smith could really fall towards the end of most seasonal drafts. If he does, absolutely swoop him up, and come December you’ll look like a freaking genius.
4. Curtis Lofton, Atlanta Falcons LB - IDP owners absolutely remember the impact that both DeMeco Ryans and Patrick Willis had in their rookie seasons, and the guy destined for that title this year is Oklahoma product Curtis Lofton. He’s expected to start from day one at WLB and potentially beat out veteran Keith Brooking for the MLB spot, which would all but seal the deal of him becoming a top IDP in 2008. The beautiful thing about rookie IDPs is that they fall to the very end of fantasy drafts. Watch as others reach in rounds 7, 8 and 9 to start filling in their individual defensive players, and laugh as you draft Lofton in the final rounds.
5. Jordon Dizon, Detroit Lions LB - The speedy beast from Colorado is known for going so hard for so long that he sucks from an oxygen tank during every game. Well, that could also be because he played most of his collegiate games in the elevation of Boulder. Anyway, the Lions are stoked about their second round pick, not only because they needed help at LB, but because they think he can step in and start at middle linebacker from day one. If Dizon works out in this spot, he’ll be an IDP stud. If he doesn’t work out, coach Rod Marinelli will move him over to the black hole of IDP positions - strong side linebacker.
6. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys RB - Dallas didn’t draft this guy with the 22nd overall pick to have him sit on the bench. He will be on the field. Not only that, but he plays for one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Even though he’s behind Marion Barber on the depth chart, he’ll have a chance to contribute in a “secondary” role that should net him around 10 touches per game. We see him as a potential Maurice Jones-Drew of 2008, making the most of every opportunity that comes his way. Of course, if the punishing Barber ever goes down with an injury, Jones’ value shoots through the roof.
7. James Hardy, Buffalo Bills WR - I know, the Bills don’t exactly have the most explosive offense, but that’s in part because they haven’t really had the proper offensive weapons. The addition of the versatile 6′6″ Hardy now gives them a sure-fire starter opposite Lee Evans, and two solid weapons for developing QB Trent Edwards to target. With second year standout Marshawn Lynch drawing the attention of opposing defenses, it will be tough to put pressure on Edwards and account for Hardy at the same time. How much he’s on the field depends on how hard he works in training camp, so monitor that, but we fully expect Hardy to be a potential fantasy difference maker in 2008, similar to Dwayne Bowe in Kansas City last year. Guys like Limas Sweed and Devin Thomas may be better dynasty options, but won’t have nearly as much seasonal value this year.
8. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans RB - Okay, we’re still shocked that the Titans chose Chris Johnson in round one, but one thing is absolutely clear - they didn’t make him the 24th overall pick to sit him behind LenDale White. Johnson will have a serious role in the offense from day one. With great receiving skills and 4.2 speed, this guy could be a killer in PPR leagues, and believe me - he’ll be available late in your seasonal drafts. Shoot, I already called Felix Jones the “Maurice Jones-Drew of 2008.” Can I say that about two guys?
9. Chris Long, St. Louis Rams DE - The Rams made it very clear that Chris Long will be a pass rushing force off the right end from day one under Jim Haslett. Let’s be honest, the chance that their entire defense will revolve around this guy is VERY strong. He should be phenomenal against the run, and rack up tackles as defenses figure out how to slow him down during his rookie year.
10. Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars DE - Jack Del Rio traded almost his entire draft in order to jump from 26th overall to 8th overall and take Harvey. He and fellow rookie Quentin Groves will each start on the ends from day one, and in IDP leagues that require starters at defensive line, they’ll each be incredible sleeper candidates due to the fact that they each have double-digit sack potential. Seattle’s Lawrence Jackson is another one to watch as well.
As you can see, there are many individual defensive players that are scheduled to step in and contribute as early as Week 1, but very few wide receivers and absolutely no quarterbacks or tight ends. Not that those spots don’t have serious fantasy considerations, it’s just that guys like Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Dustin Keller, Limas Sweed, Donnie Avery, Jordy Nelson, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are more attractive to dynasty owners, and really only seen as potential waiver wire selections for those in seasonal formats. As for RBs like Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart, yeah, their time could come this season, but it’s more likely that they’ll breakout in 2009 or 2010.
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